Macro@Moneycontrol | Wondering what the monsoon forecast hullabaloo is all about?

Remigio Civitarese
Aprile 16, 2018

India had 95 per cent of the LPA rainfall a year ago - as against the first forecast of 96 per cent of the LPA (with an error margin of +/- 5 per cent).

Sunday's maximum temperature settled at 36 degrees Celsius, one notch above the season's average, while the minimum temperature was recorded at 20.5 degrees Celsius, normal for the season.

India is likely to receive normal monsoon rains in 2018, IMD said, raising the probability of higher farm and economic growth in Asia's third-biggest economy, where half of the farmland lacks irrigation. India receives 89 cm of rainfall during the four-month monsoon season, which is nearly 75 per cent of its annual rainfall.

A good monsoon is good news for the Indian economy.

The IMD bases it's optimism on an assessment that an El Nino, associated with a weak monsoon is unlikely.

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has said rainfall in 2018 will be normal at 100 per cent of the LPA.

Last year, the country as a whole received rainfall that was 95 per cent of its long-period average.

IMD will update its forecast in early June with numbers on month and region-wise distribution of the monsoon. The average rainfall in "above normal" monsoon is between 104-110 per cent of the LPA while anything beyond 110 per cent of the LPA is considered as "excess".

Successive years of drought in 2014 and 2015 led to a fall in crop production and poor agriculture sector growth rate which fell to a low of -0.8% in 2014-15 and -0.1% in 2015-16.

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