The midterms show Trump might not get re-elected in 2020

Modesto Morganelli
Novembre 8, 2018

Trump encouraged voters to view the 2018 midterms as a referendum on his leadership, pointing proudly to the surging economy at recent rallies. Today, his chances for re-election look much more hard than they did just a few months ago.

Any records Democrats manage to shake out could potentially have an impact on federal lawsuits Democrats are already pursuing against the president. The Mueller probe into allegations of collusion with Russian Federation was handing out indictments of former Trump advisers. In elections for Congress, governorships and state legislatures alike, the number of women who ran outstripped previous years, as did the number of women nominated.

The Republicans' control of the Senate is arguably more significant, says the BBC's Aleem Maqbool in Washington, because Mr Trump focused his campaigning on Senate races, and candidates he backed clearly benefited.

During a rambling news conference that began as a soliloquy, President Donald Trump on Wednesday found plenty of ways to downplay his party's losses in congressional races in Tuesday's midterms, when Democrats regained control of the U.S. House. The result just confirms and extends America's current political divisions.

Here's a closer look at nine takeaways from the midterm election results.

Their lawsuit also has a potential wrinkle that involves another figure of the tense midterm election season - newly confirmed Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Then there's the divided nature of America: the rising partisan hostility; the widening divisions between urban and rural America; the record gender gap; the fault line of education.

All this was on display this week.

Democrats will use their new majority to reverse what they see as a hands-off approach by Republicans toward Trump's foreign policy, and push for tougher dealings with Russia, Saudi Arabia and North Korea.

History was working against the president in both the House and the Senate. Yet it may be effective in largely rural states where he remains popular and where numerous closest Senate races are playing out. However, it backfired in House races.

Democrats needed to pick up two dozen seats to seize the House majority and two seats to control the Senate.

There are anywhere between 30 and 40 of these seats, and they are primarily based in the suburbs of Philadelphia, Denver, northern Virginia and Miami-Dade. White men with college degrees, meanwhile, were evenly split, and whites without degrees voted strongly Republican, according to CNN's exit polls. And it is the states that determine the electoral-college vote, which in turn determines the presidential election.

One of Trump's most vocal defenders on immigration, Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, lost his bid for governor.

Democrats boasted record diversity on ballots.

Although Ronald Reagan would be aghast at Trump's protectionism and exclusionary nativism, the GOP is now Trump's party. The Donald shouldn't be underestimated in 2020. And Democratic wins in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania raised questions about whether Trump can repeat his narrow wins there in 2020. However, there is a danger in over-interpreting their mandate.

But former President Barack Obama was among those who directly targeted Trump and his personal style and beliefs, saying at one point "the character of the country is on the ballot".

For the past two years, White House lawyers and the Trump Organisation have repeatedly rebuffed Democratic efforts to get even the most basic financial information on Trump's businesses. At times he even appeared at odds with his own campaign, which in the election's final days released a gauzy ad aimed at suburban women. "Two can play that game!"

Over the last two years there was always this sense that while the president's thunderous championing of white nationalism and anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies was hurting him in the heavily Mexican-American parts of the southwestern United States, it was the key to unlock the Rustbelt and Midwest - the part of the country seen as the one which gave him the presidency.

Hyper-partisanship, toxic polarisation, lack of bipartisanship-the midterm elections have reaffirmed these trends.

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