Region eyes "vigorous" tropical wave as 2018 hurricane season near the end

Rodiano Bonacci
Novembre 12, 2018

A new disturbance in the tropics has formed, and it actually has the chance to develop into a pre-Thanksgiving week tropical or subtropical system.

"Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system, ' the NHC said, noting that there's a 90 per cent chance of the system developing over the next five days".

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little more concentrated this morning, and environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so.

"Should this system track far enough to the north of the Caribbean Islands, this will allow for some organization", according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rathbun.

If it strengthens into a tropical storm it would become Patty, the 16th named storm of 2018.

On the other hand, odds would be against development if the system maintains a more westward track over the mountainous islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The storms caused billions of dollars in damage in North and SC.

The tropical wave is 200 miles east of the Leeward Islands and producing a large area of disturbed weather.

"Your chances, in the US, of getting a land-falling hurricane in November are only about 1 percent", Knabb said during the network's tropical weather segment. "The season has already had 7 systems that were subtropical at some point in their lifetime, which eclipses the previous record of 5 in 1969", the Hurricane Center explains.

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