IEA says oil demand subdued on economic uncertainty

Cornelia Mascio
Settembre 12, 2019

The API numbers had US crude inventories down by 7.2 million barrels in the week ended September 6 to 421.9 million, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll of a decrease of 2.7 million barrels.

Oil prices gained on Thursday in Asia amid positive Sino-U.S. trade developments.

Should there be no more embargoes on Iranian oil, an additional 1 million barrels from Tehran could end up in the market - not exactly something that OPEC would welcome.

Demand for the group's crude in the first half of 2020 will be 1.4 MMbpd below its August output as production surges from their competitors, including the U.S. Though an increase in stockpiles has taken a pause for now, growth in other countries, including Brazil and Norway means that 2020 could see a significant increase in oil stockpiles and pressure on prices.

People familiar with the matter report that Bolton, a well-known Iran hawk was strongly opposed to that approach on Iran and voiced his displeasure to President Trump.

The IEA left its oil demand growth forecasts for oil demand growth unchanged at 1.1 million b/d for 2019, and 1.3 million b/d in 2020.

At the same time, the USA shale oil industry is booming.

At 416.1 million barrels, US crude inventories were at their lowest since October 2018, the EIA said.

A meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russian Federation in Abu Dhabi to discuss their deal curbing supply by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) did not tackle deepening the cut, Oman's oil minister said. That lifted total exports of crude and products to almost 9 million b/d. The U.S. overtook OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation to become, briefly, the world's top oil exporter. Indeed, the cartel's monthly report highlighted the need for production cuts to prevent more oversupplies.

A committee of OPEC+ members is meeting in Abu Dhabi on Thursday to discuss compliance with output cuts that are due to expire in March. "Understandably, OPEC is anxious and the market even more at what lies ahead for the cartel".

The report said oil inventories in industrialized economies fell in July, a development that could ease OPEC concern over a possible glut. Total non-OPEC supply for the year is now forecast at 66.65 million barrels a day.

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