Canada could see 60K daily COVID-19 cases by year-end, modelling predicts

Modesto Morganelli
Novembre 20, 2020

The modelling, set to be released by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), shows a worst-case scenario of 60,000 new cases per day if social contacts rise, the Globe and Mail newspaper and Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reported.

New projections released on Friday show that, in the short term, Canada is projected to hit between 366,500 to 378,600 total cases, and between 11,870 to 12,120 deaths by November 30.

The severity of the second wave of COVID-19 is becoming clearer from Canada's Chief Public Health officer.

Looking ahead, the data suggests that if the population falls into COVID fatigue and increases their personal interactions and number of contacts - such as by going to family dinners and other gatherings over the holidays - patient numbers will skyrocket to the aforementioned 60,000 per day across Canada by late December.

"The strain on health systems has resulted in hospitals having to postpone important medical procedures, while critical care beds for COVID-19 patients have reached, or, are at near maximum capacity in some areas", warns Tam.

Tam stressed the "urgency to quickly bring infection rates down across the country".

Tam also said the country is aiming for the blue line of the trajectory.

Each day over the past week, about 4,800 daily new cases have been reported nationally, a figure that's 15 per cent greater than the week before.

PHAC declined to comment on the reports and referred to an earlier statement from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on presenting the upcoming modelling to opposition parties earlier on Thursday. Anything above five per cent indicates countries aren't testing enough, according to the World Health Organization. That safer path requires that Canadians significantly reduce the number of people they come into contact with each day.

To date, Canada has a total of 315,715 cases.

A combined effort by individuals and public health authorities is needed, Tam said. Thankfully, recovery rates remain high, around 80 per cent nationwide while the newest cases are still considered ill.

"You have to plan ahead and be really firm", she said.

Altre relazioniGrafFiotech

Discuti questo articolo

Segui i nostri GIORNALE