New projections show COVID-19 growth accelerating in Ontario

Modesto Morganelli
Gennaio 13, 2021

Currently, the number of Ontarians infected with COVID-19 doubles every 35-40 days.

There are 1,701 patients in hospital - an increase of 138 over the previous day - including 385 in intensive care units. The number of cases in Ontario is growing between three per cent and five per cent nearly every day.

On Tuesday, provincial health officials presented the new data.

Saskatchewan is reporting 248 new cases of COVID-19. "This is no longer a problem of a small group of cities or one region of the province".

Ontario's associate medical officer of health Dr. Barbara Yaffe echoed the Premier, affirming on Monday that an overnight curfew was not among the many health and safety measures considered by the provincial government.

"If we do not follow these restrictions, COVID-19 will continue to aggressively spread before vaccines have the chance to protect us", he said.

"They will be choices about who will get the care they need and who will not". "There will be choices about who will receive oxygen and who will be transported to hospital". Many surgeries have already been cancelled or delayed because of hospital capacity concerns. "Simply put, delays kill".

More long-term care home deaths are among the sobering latest COVID-19 predictions from the province. That could mean the province could see 10,000 to 20,000 cases a day by mid-February if the current growth rates continue.

The province says one new case of the disease has been identified in central Nova Scotia and is a close contact of a previously reported case.

Despite efforts to distribute the COVID-19 vaccinate to all long-term care homes in the province as soon as possible, the modelling table said that under the worst case scenario, deaths among residents of long-term care homes during the second wave of the pandemic could reach a total of more than 2,600 by February 14, exceeding the 1,815 deaths recorded during the first wave.

"We are seeing potentially cases going up to 15,000 (per day)", said Ford.

The science table warned that variant B.1.1.7, commonly referred to as the United Kingdom variant, could "drive much higher case counts, ICU occupancy and mortality as community transmission occurs". "It's important to note that this is now spreading across all parts of the province".

S. land border will remain closed to non-essential travel until at least February 21 - another 30-day extension to the restrictions in place since mid-March.

Where are the COVID-19 cases in Ontario?

"The guidance on this page is being updated to reflect the new restrictions and public health measures".

The new data shows the growth of COVID-19 is accelerating in Ontario, growing at seven per cent on the "worst days". "They were going to adjacent regions to go shopping", she said.

Since the implementation of the province-wide shutdown over two weeks ago, the latest modelling trends in key public health indicators have continued to worsen. "I don't think that the numbers are there to justify that we should remove the lockdown measures, but we also know that our community is not isolated".

This order, along with other new and existing public health restrictions, aim to limit people's mobility and reduce the number of daily contacts with those outside an immediate household.

When it comes to school, the return of students to in person-learning has been pushed back from January 25 to Feb 10 in hotspots including, Windsor-Essex, Toronto, Hamilton, York and Peel.

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