Tropical or subtropical storm could form in Gulf later today, forecasters say

Rodiano Bonacci
Ottobre 17, 2019

NHC has increased the chance for development with this system up to 50% in 5 days asx of the 2PM Tropical Outlook.

The strongest winds, however, will likely be found east of the center - perhaps a good deal east - and will coincide with the greatest storm surge risk as well.

A disturbance over the Bay of Campeche near Mexico is forecast to develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone Thursday and Florida may possibly be in its path.

The system is expected to near the Gulf coast on Friday and Friday night.

Keep in mind that this is all subject to change and that Hurricane Hunters have not even investigated the system.

The storm is forecast to make a turn toward the northeast by Thursday afternoon or later, and then move in a northeastward motion "at a faster forward speed" by Friday into Saturday.

Forecasters there noted that forecast models are varying in the eventual track and timing of the system - but as of early Thursday areas along the Florida Panhandle were looking most likely for landfall. There is a 70% chance it will become a tropical depression or tropical storm by Friday.

The United States may get hit by two to four major hurricanes before the end of the 2019 hurricane season.

Computer model projection of rainfall estimates from tropical or subtropical storm Nestor.

The low-pressure system is bringing heavy rain with the risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of southern Mexico and Central America.

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